The current debate over Iraq is a foreign policy Rubik's cube. But unlike the Hungarian puzzle that made a generation of intelligentsia fumble like fools, this war game is no matter for amusement. Spinning through the options at hand, Americans are finding it devilishly hard to keep the issues straight. What begins as a simple notion turns out to be much trickier than one might suppose. Multiple options within multiple dimensions create a befuddling complexity.

The decision cube has three dimensions. Time is one. The question of whether to attack Iraq has past, present, and future elements. DC policy makers are haunted by September 11th, and a fear of yester-year is now engraved in our national psyche.

Twist: Our present rush to arms is a race against the clock, with intelligence officials thinking that within months Saddam may have a nuclear weapon. Twist: Other policy experts look to the future, asking us to imagine an Arab world free of Saddam, but further alienated from the West by arrogant unilateralism, with the proliferation of Al-Qaida-type organizations mocking our most ardent attempts at homeland security.

We turn the cube to another face-the spatial dimension. Saddam is holding together a country divided into three diverse regions that may well split in a chaotic civil war if he loses control. Twist: Regionally, Saddam's posturing as the Middle East bully makes Saudis, Iranians, and Egyptians nervous; his sights still are fixed on his neighbors' oil fields, which he needs in order to solve his domestic economic crisis. If he prevails, our oil-based economy may be held hostage. Twist: Farther out, Saddam's anti-Israel bellicosity results in an alliance with the Palestinians and by extension, the Jordanians and others alienated from Israel. If Israel is drawn into battle, where do we draw the line?

The permutations of time and space are complex beyond what we had imagined. But there is a third dimension to the cube. The President wants to finish his father's business and so motivates the nation by pointing to an unsubstantiated Al Qaida/Saddam link, even though Osama Bin Laden likely has the same antipathy toward the non-orthodox Saddam as he does for the U.S. Twist: The US dominated military-industrial complex needs to sell its wares. Twist: UN head Kofi Annan denounces US unilateralism as a dangerous precedent, and the administration vacillates between going it alone and Colin Powell's insistence on an approach among allies. Twist: A pivotal US election looms, and President Bush needs a distraction from a disastrous domestic economy.

Twist. Twist. Twist.

Twisted thinking won't get us where we need to be. Members of Congress have complained that the Bush administration withheld information about the North Korean nuclear arms agreement abrogation until the debate on Iraq was completed and the war resolution signed. That duplicity made it possible for Iraq hawks to brush aside critics who asked, "Why Iraq instead of other rogue states?" Government officials insist that we are justified in attacking Iraq out of "self-defense." In fact, Saddam Hussein is not threatening to attack the U.S. He's a terrible person, a ruthless dictator, but also a power-hungry regional bully highly invested in staying alive. In short, he's a megalomaniac, not an ideologue. Let's assume Saddam does develop more terrible weapons than he already has. Why on earth would he want to give away that power to terrorists who could turn around and use those weapons against him? And why would he risk the wrath of the U.S., which would lead to his certain destruction?

An invasion of Iraq presents an enormous risk to the U.S. it would undoubtedly be framed as an imperialistic anti-Islamic act. The unintended consequence would be the uniting of Muslim states in an anti-American coalition and the energizing of religious fanatics. I can accept with regret the necessity of sometimes using military action to stop aggression. But a national tragedy like September 11th does not justify cowboy foreign policy. When the dots don't connect-when the squares don't line up-all the bluster in the world won't make them.

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